Great Turning Times June 2005
The Great Turning Times – a free quarterly email newsletter about
finding our power to respond to global crisis. Bringing together
ecology, psychology, spirituality and global politics, it lists
events, news and resources to support the shift towards a life
sustaining society.
Dear Reader,
Welcome to the June 2005 Great Turning Times.
Many people emailed me after reading the Michael McCarthy article
on Climate Change sent with the last newsletter (see
http://www.gci.org.uk/articles/Tablet.pdf for pdf).
Reporting the recent international conference in Exeter, it
contained disturbing news. Climate disturbance is proceeding more
rapidly than previously thought. The western Antarctic ice-sheet
is beginning to show signs of breaking up. Were it to collapse,
sea levels would rise by more than 16 feet. “Good London;
goodbye Bangladesh” writes McCarthy.
When reading alarming reports like this, common responses include
horror and disbelief. The disbelief track is easier; it doesn’t
disturb sleep or drop your mood. Like water off the proverbial
duck’s back, disbelief protects against all known threats to peace
of mind. Some might regard this as a useful filtering device,
because problems that are serious enough become obvious sooner or
later. But how bad do things have to get before the alarm is
sounded? If we wait till things are really awful, we miss the
chance to take preventative action. Feeling horrified may be a
better bet for human survival. The problem is that it doesn’t feel
nice, leading to resistance at a number of crucial points.
The first points of resistance are in reporting and publishing
information in the first place. For example, last October
scientists announced that levels of carbon dioxide were rising
much faster than previously expected, making earlier estimates of
climate change overly optimistic. This made it to the front page
of the Guardian and Independent (11.10.04), but wasn’t even
mentioned in most other UK newspapers. When the alarm is sounded
loudly in niche circles, but ignored elsewhere, a double reality
is generated where small numbers of people are horrified while the
majority wonder what the fuss is about. The gap between mainstream
media and alternative reporting adds to the disbelief many feel
when they first encounter the horror stories of what is happening
to our world. Can it really be this bad? Surely not.
This was my reaction when I first read about Peak Oil. I was so
alarmed by Thom Hartmann’s book “The Last Hours of Ancient
Sunlight” that my sleep was disturbed for weeks. He described
how our society is totally dependent on energy from sunlight
millions of years old stored as oil. When this runs out, as is
likely in the coming decades, we face a massive collapse. We use
oil to fuel intensive agriculture, transport food, heat our homes,
pump our water and take away our rubbish. How will we manage when
supplies dwindle? Feeling disbelief, I asked the US Centre for
Energy Information how long world oil supplies would last. 42
years at current rates of consumption they said. But as world
consumption rates are rising fast, it won’t be as long as that.
The UK government’s White Paper on energy puts it at 30 years, but
reckons that with advanced technology and new discoveries, we may
stretch to double this.
Oil is more difficult and expensive to extract once you are in the
second half of an oil field’s life. Hence the term Peak Oil – the
point at which we move over the peak and into the second half of
the world’s supply of oil. Once this point is reached, oil will
become progressively more expensive. It might not be a sudden
crash, so much as a falling apart of industrial society. As oil
prices shoot upwards, recession sets in. When oil dependent
agriculture can’t be sustained, food shortages will follow. For
more information, read the article by John Vidal of the Guardian
at the end of this email, or hear the interview with Jan Lundberg
listed in point (5) below.
Climate Change and Peak Oil are two of the adversity trends we
face. Duane Elgin, in his book Promise Ahead, suggests we
are on course for an ‘evolutionary crash’ if we don’t respond to
these in time. But if we rise to the occasion, for example, by
having a massive cultural shift towards sustainable ways of
living, we could have an ‘evolutionary bounce’ instead. This is
what the Great Turning is all about. We are at a crucial period in
human history. We face massive challenges, and biggest being that
the alarm has not yet been widely heard. But the beacons are being
lit. A change is happening and we each can be, or already are,
part of this.
The Work That Reconnects is an empowerment approach developed by
Joanna Macy and others to strengthen our ability to constructively
participate in these changes. It is based on the principle that by
deepening our connection with life, we can open up the spiritual
and psychological resources needed to face and respond to global
issues. This can turn around the feeling of powerlessness that
many feel when facing concerns about our world, whilst also
helping us tap into a deeper source of energy, joy and purpose in
life.
That is the focus of this newsletter, plus resources, news and
events that are broadly to do with the Great Turning.
With you in this Great Turning Adventure
Chris Johnstone
Editor, The Great Turning Times
Email: chris@chrisjohnstone.info
web:
http://www.chrisjohnstone.info
Ps.
If you like this email newsletter, please do pass it on. If it has
been forwarded to you and you’d like it regularly, email me with
SUBSCRIBE in the subject header. If you want to stop receiving it,
please email me with “REMOVE” as a subject header. It comes out
four times a year, with editions in September, December, March and
June. Copy date for entries is last day of month before next
edition. Please let me know of events, news, resources etc that
you would like included. Please also keep entries short, ideally
about 100-200 words.
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(1) If you’re from outside the UK and would prefer the
international edition of this newsletter that includes the same
insights and resources for the Great Turning, but without details
of the UK events, please email me at
chris@chrisjohnstone.info
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(2) It was Joanna Macy who coined the phrase ‘The Great Turning’
to describe the story of change required in our times. An
interview with her about this can be downloaded from the Yes
magazine website at www.yesmagazine.org/pdf/Macy_Great_Turning.pdf
An article by her about The Great Turning is viewable at
http://www.rainbowbody.net/Ongwhehonwhe/MacyGreatTurn.htm
There is more material on her website at
http://www.joannamacy.net
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(3)
Personal Power for the Planet - The Work that Reconnects in Dorset
September 9th – 11th 2005, Cost £160 (concs £130) full board.
A residential weekend workshop at Monkton Wyld Court, nr Charmouth,
Dorset, UK.
With Chris Johnstone, Alex Wildwood, Maitrisara and Claire Carre.
The Work That Reconnects is an empowerment approach developed by
Joanna Macy and others. It is based on the principle that by
deepening our connection with life, we can open up the spiritual
and psychological resources needed to face and respond to global
issues. This can turn around the feeling of powerlessness that
many feel when facing concerns about our world, whilst also
helping us tap into a deeper source of energy, joy and purpose in
life.
This workshop additionally includes an optional Sunday afternoon
session for those interested in training in this approach.
To book or for further info, contact Alex Wildwood at
alex@wildwood.org.uk or phone
01453 – 836566
Or Chris Johnstone at email: chris@chrisjohnstone.info
or see website at
http://www.chrisjohnstone.info
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(4)
Personal and Planetary Renewal - The Work that Reconnects in Spain
September 17th – 24th 2005 at Cortijo Romero, Southern Spain.
With Chris Johnstone and Kathleen Sullivan.
Cost £425 To book, phone 01494 765775
or see web details at
http://www.cortijo-romero.co.uk
or at
http://www.chrisjohnstone.info
This one week residential course combines personal
renewal, deepening connection with life and personal power
training in a splendid setting among the foothills of the Sierra
Nevada. Come to this if you want to strengthen your ability to
play your role in this Great Turning whilst having a great
week/life too.
Chris and Kathleen have worked closely with Joanna Macy over many
years in facilitating this work.
For more information contact Chris by email at
chris@chrisjohnstone.info
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(5)
For an interview with Jan Lundberg on peak oil and cultural
change (audio)
http://suesupriano.com/audio/janlundberg.mp3
After musical introduction, oil analyst and activist Jan Lundberg
introduces the Peak Oil issue
and the need for a deep level cultural shift to respond. He is
describing The Great Turning.
He also produces a web based newsletter at
http://www.culturechange.org/
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(6) If you’d like more information about Peak Oil, here are two
useful websites.
http://www.peakoil.org/
http://www.peakoil.net/
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(7) Climate Change Resources
If you’d like more information about the Exeter Climate Change
conference mentioned in Michael McCarthy’s article,
Check out the website at
http://www.stabilisation2005.com/
You can see list of presenters and even download their
presentations.
They list expected outcomes of climate change at
http://www.stabilisation2005.com/outcomes.html
For up to date news on climate change, check out
http://www.climatewire.org/
For an interesting article on the link between climate change and
extreme weather events see
http://www.environmenttimes.net/article.cfm?pageID=122
If you’re concerned about climate change and would like to reduce
your carbon emissions, COIN (The Climate Outreach and Information
Network) have a very clear guide on how to do this at their
website. Check out
http:/www.coinet.org.uk
At
http://coinet.org.uk/motivation/challenge/measure.php
you can work out an estimate of your carbon impact,
and then look at the areas you’d need to act to reduce this.
Information about COIN’s speaker series in Oxford is available at
http://coinet.org.uk/speakers/
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(8) For a personal ecological footprint analysis, check out the
web of hope website at
http://www.thewebofhope.com/toolkits/1/
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(9)
Register of Facilitators of ‘the Work that Reconnects’
A message from Alex Wildwood.
At the recent Intensive with Joanna Macy at Monkton Wyld, there
was a sense of the need for a Register of Facilitators in the UK
offering – or wishing to offer – ‘the work that reconnects’ (and
‘deep ecology workshops’). We want to compile a simple database of
those who feel either: A) they are ready to offer this work and
want to be part of the ‘pool’ of people who might work together –
or:
B) they want to train/prepare themselves/gain skills to do this
(If you’re not sure where you ‘fit’, we suggest that for A) you
have participated in at least three experiential workshops
yourself – one of these in a supporting, co-facilitating role. But
part of what the register would be about is to have a forum for
sharing ideas/discussion/experience about issues like self and
peer assessment/mutual support/the need for ‘training’ - so that
the network of facilitators can grow in a sustainable and
responsible way).
Please do contact me to be on this register – and also if you are
specifically interested in training/preparing yourself as someone
offering this work.
Alex Wildwood
alex@wildwood.org.uk
tel: 01453 836566
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(10) News - Rainforest loss shocks Brazil
Deforestation in the Amazon rainforest last year was the second
worst ever,
figures released by the Brazilian government have shown. Satellite
photos
and other data showed that ranchers, loggers and especially soy
bean farmers
felled more than 10,000 square miles.
The figures shocked Brazil's environment minister, Marina Silva,
who told
delegates to the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre earlier this
year that
she believed that increases in deforestation had been stemmed and
that
illegal deforestation was under control.
In fact, the destruction was nearly 6% higher than in the same
period in
2003, when 9,500 square miles were destroyed.
For article by John Vidal Friday May 20, 2005 Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/gall/0,8542,1488779,00.html
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(11) Inspiring rainforest activists/deep ecologists John Seed and
Ruth Rosenhek continue their series of workshops in North America
in June – August this year. You can see details of their workshop
programme at
http://www.rainforestinfo.org.au/deep-eco/schedule.htm
They are some plans underway for John and Ruth to offer some
workshops in the UK in 2006, but this is just at the planning
stage at the moment. If you would like to invite John and Ruth to
run a workshop in your area and you can help set this up, please
do get in touch with John at
rainforestinfo@ozemail.com.au
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(12) Thanks to John, you can see past editions of The Great
Turning Times, and its predecessor Deep Ecology News,
at
http://www.rainforestinfo.org.au/deep-eco/news.htm
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(13) Something beautiful -
Among the giants
Sebastião Salgado
, spent weeks in the company of right whales, and saw the ocean
turn into a jumping field.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/arts/salgado/image/0,15021,1478348,00.html
If you feel moved by this, you might like to join the virtual
anti-whaling march:
http://whales.greenpeace.org
- deadline is June 19!
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(14) 'LIVING ON THE CUSP' is a new seminar linking ecology, limits
to growth, and one of the most important but virtually
unknown constraints - 'Peak Oil'. It is taking place at the
Braziers Park eco-village near Oxford, June 17-19th, 2005.
www.livingonthecusp.org www.love-craft.net
georgegiangrande@yahoo.co.uk
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(15)
Starhawk's workshop at Alternatives
Sunday, June 26
London, England
"Holding Power Well'
This workshop explores issues of power and
leadership. How do we take our power and own it as
a life-giving force? How do we recognize when we do
have power, and use it in ways that empower others?
How do we nurture and support leadership in our
groups, while also holding our leaders accountable?
This is a workshop for anyone who has struggled
with these issues in relationships or groups. All
of us have internalized models of power as
domination, which often interfere when we attempt to
form new structures based on power-from-within. We
will consider power within sacred space, and through
ritual, trance, and energy work develop the tools we
need to transform destructive patterns into energies
freed for change.
For more information, contact: Alternatives
Tel: 020 7287 6711
http://www.alternatives.org.uk
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(16) For Starhawk’s occasional newsletter/writings
To subscribe to this list, send an email to
Starhawk-subscribe@lists.riseup.net.
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(17)
G8 Protest Highlights
The G8 countries account for 84% of CO2 emissions in
recent history.
Saturday 2nd July - Make Poverty History
Demonstration, Edinburgh - expected to be the
biggest demonstration ever held in Scotland. Sunday
3rd July - The Alternative Summit, Edinburgh
- workshops including George Monbiot, Susan George,
Ken Wiwa and Starhawk. Monday 4th July - Faslane
Nuclear Submarine Base blockade. Six of the G8 have
nuclear weapons on their soil. The replacement or
otherwise of Britain's Trident system must be
decided by Parliament shortly. Tuesday 5th July -
Climate Justice Day & demonstration at Dungavel
detention centre called by Glasgow Campaign to
Welcome Refugees.
Wednesday 6th July - Mass demonstration over the
hills to Gleneagles Hotel on first day of G8
summit.
Further information at:
http://www.dissent.org.uk
<http://www.dissent.org.uk>
<http://www.dissent.org.uk/>
<http://www.dissent.org.uk/>
Dissent is the main group organizing actions.
http://www.g8alternatives.org.uk
<http://www.g8alternatives.org.uk>
Website for alternative forums, etc.
http://scotland.indymedia.org
<http://scotland.indymedia.org>
<http://scotland.indymedia.org/>
<http://scotland.indymedia.org/>
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(18)
Cre8 Summit June 12-17
Cre8 Summit has been organised by individuals
wanting to protest 'for' something rather than
'against' the G8. We are planning to work with the
ongoing community protests against the building of
the M74 in Glasgow, in particular the council
estates of Govanhill and Gorbles.
The plan for the work is to reclaim a vacant piece
of land that is on site for the construction of the
motorway, and than to turn it into a community
social space with gardens, sculptures, benches,
artwork, etc.
The work on this project is underway. During May we
will be running weekly workshops with the
communities. During the second week of June, we
will reclaim the land (community open day 12th of
June) and begin a week of work (from the13-17th of
June) to turn this bit of waste land into something
the community can enjoy.
There is an email list that announces news on this
project:
cre8summit@lists.riseup.net
you can subscribe here:
http://lists.riseup.net/www/info/cre8summit
<http://lists.riseup.net/www/info/cre8summit>
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(19) Countrywide ECOPSYCHOLOGY GATHERING
Little Brimley, Appley, Nr Wellington,Somerset.
18th - 25th June 2005
A residential week bringing together activists,
therapists, theorists and
interested newcomers for workshops, seminars,
practical projects, rituals,
parties and networking; all as guests of a rural
community.
Ecopsychology asks: why do we allow the destruction
and degradation of our
planetary environment? And how can we mobilise our
energies to do things
differently? Many people are exploring ecopsychology
in a huge variety of
ways, practical and theoretical sometimes without
even knowing the word!
This Gathering will bring some of us together in the
same place to share,
exchange, celebrate and learn.
Cost on a range depending on income: £187, £228,
£269, with a concessionary
low-income rate of £146. This covers all food and
accommodation.
For full details and booking, go to
www.ecopsych.org.uk, email
info@ecopsych.org.uk
or phone Sandra White, 01992 503451.
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(20) Heather Witham, who was at both Joanna Macy’s
recent UK talks, and her workshop in Oxford
Has made her excellent notes from these events
available on the web.
See
http://thoughtoffering.blogs.com/moonletter/2005/05/the_work_that_r.html
and
http://thoughtoffering.blogs.com/moonletter/2005/05/the_great_turni.html
Here’s an entry she sent.
MoonLetters
As part of her tour of England in April, Joanna Macy
gave a talk in
Bath about The Great Turning, a talk in Oxford about
climate change,
and a two-day workshop in Oxford for climate change
activists. All
three events have been/are being written up in
Heather Witham's
MoonLetters. To begin the sequence, go to:
http://thoughtoffering.blogs.com/moonletter/2005/05/the_great_turni.html.
To sign up to receive the weekly MoonLetter,
which explores ecopsychology and The Great Turning,
go to:
http://www.mymoonster.com. Beginning
in July, MoonLetters will be
available for postal delivery and will follow a
lesson plan based on
Joanna Macy's and Andy Fisher's teachings. See
http://www.mymoonster.com for more
information then.
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(21) From Claire Carre and Anne-Marie Culhane
“How can creativity be integrated into The Great
Turning?’
Artists/performers and those with uncontrollable
creative urges are invited
to participate in a weekend exploring this and other
issues connecting creativity and deep
ecology (the interdependence of all things).
There are many, many different ways to share this
experiential and
discursive journey. Possible outcomes could be: a
great turning arts network, future delivery of
interdisciplinary workshops and events, finding ways
to actively integrating the arts with The work that
reconnects…We will be considering the arts and
creativity from individual and group perspectives,
as a way of sharing ideas with others as well as
deepening and nurturing our own relationships
with our world.
We hope to meet in the UK over a weekend in late
Autumn/Winter 2005
So, if you paint, perform, dance, write, tell
stories, sculpt, sing, make
music, make things, make art with food, design,
photograph, film, print, sew etc. please email both
Claire & Anne-Marie. It would be great if you can
include a little bit of info about yourself and what
your interests are.
We are on the lookout for a suitable, cheap and
preferably rural venue for
this weekend with space
to work inside and outside and would welcome
suggestions.
Anne-Marie Culhane:
wook5@hotmail.com
Claire Carre:
clou.carre@free.fr
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(22) CONSTELLATIONS WORKSHOP: MANCHESTER 10TH &
11TH SEPTEMBER 2005
Faciltators Zita Cox and Ty Francis
Insight and Resolution through exploring family,
organisation and earth
systems.We are all interconnected parts of
family, organisation, community and
earth systems. Constellations (based on the
therapeutic work of Bert Hellinger)
are an innovative way of gaining insight into the
systems we are part of. This
can support the resolution of personal, professional
and environmental
problems.
A constellation provides a way to see below the
surface of things. After
describing a deeply felt "burning" issue, you will
be asked to invite people
from the group to stand in a special configuration
(called a constellation).
This provides a "living map" of the the
interconnected issues you are dealing
with. You then stand back and observe. With guidance
from the facilitators,
the representatives in your constellation are
invited to feedback their
experience. The aim is to reach a resolution.
contact for bookings and information
zita@dsl.pipex.com
or ty@qualiagroup.com
Tel 01244 329 429.
Zita Cox will be presenting an Eco System
Constellation at The Centre for Alternative
Technology Symposium July 2nd 2005 and at
UNIMAGINABLE SOLUTIONS:Introducing
Constellations at Work;Conference in Chester:
18/19/20 October 2005.
Ty Francis: an organiser of Unimaginable Solutions
Conference will be presenting at
the conference.
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(23) Arts-based Ecotherapy Ongoing Group
Explore your relationship with self, people and
planet. Group therapy using voicework, music, drama,
discussion, ceremony & activities in nature. Groups
meeting fortnightly in outdoor centre locations in
both Bristol & South Devon areas. Quarterly weekends
away.
Led by Mel McCree, music therapist & environmental
arts practitioner.
Ffi tel 07970 748042 or email
melskidoo@bigfoot.com
www.humanrites.org.uk
Reconnecting with the healing forces of Nature.
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(24) Rites of passage / coming-of-age projects
survey
Mel McCree is still seeking people for her
national survey on rites of passage and coming of
age ceremonies / projects for young people entering
adulthood (14-30).
She wants practitioners to fill in a questionnaire
based on their work with young people, and is also
keen to hear from people interested in this kind of
work, including scholars, educators, youth workers,
facilitators etc. Her particular interest is in the
role of the arts in the outdoor rites of passage
form.
She will be conducting a 3 year long project with
youth groups in the south west as research for her
PhD, and hopes to build a support network of similar
practitioners. There will be a conference in 2006
with an open invite for papers, proposals etc.
Website under construction;
www.humanrites.org.uk
Please contact Mel on
melskidoo@bigfoot.com 07970 748042
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(25)
Nurturing Sustainable Practice in Outdoor Education
A Four-day Residential Workshop for Leaders of
Experiential and Outdoor-Based Training and
Education Groups
(see attached rtf file for info)
Thursday August 18 to Sunday August 21 - 2005.
The workshop is now open for enrolments and
expressions of interest. Bookings will be taken on a
first-in-first-served basis.
Contacts for
enquiries:Robbie Nicol
robbie.nicol@ed.ac.uk
<mailto:robbie.nicol@ed.ac.uk>
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(26)
Ecotherapy
Working with the healing power of wild places.
12 - 18 September, 2005 - GBP £550.00
At Cae Mabon, Llanberis, North Wales
With David Key & Mary-Jayne Rust
This five-day course offers a rare chance to explore
the emerging field of ecotherapy in a magical and
beautfiul setting in the heart of Snowdonia. Set in
an ancient oak forest on the shores of a lake, Cae
Mabon is truly a place for reconnecting with the
Earth.
For info, see website at
http://www.footprint-education.org/ecotherapy.html
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(27)
Your Community, Your Planet:
promoting sustainability through participation
Conference, Fri 8 July, Guildhall, Bath
Exploring the issues and sharing practical
solutions - speakers, workshops and
demonstrations (programme attached)
climate change -
biodiversity - pollution - recycling and waste -
transport - gardening- food production -
sustainable consumption - healthy communities -
energy
Speakers/presentations include:
Professor Bill Scott, Director, Centre for Research
in Education and the Environment, University of Bath
- Sustrans - NIACE (National Institute for Adult and
Community Education) - Global Action Plan - Learning
South West, Sustainability South West - Federation
of City Farms and Community Gardens - Walking the
Way to Health - Professor Geoff Hammond,
International Centre for the Environment, University
of Bath - and many more...
Participant fee £50 plus VAT, * also reduced-rate
bursary places available on application *
Kate Allport
Community Team, Envolve
Green Park Station, Bath BA1 1JB
t. 01225 787912
e. katea@envolve.co.uk
<mailto:katea@envolve.co.uk>
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(28) JULY 8TH DAY OF ACTION ON THE ROOT CAUSES OF
CLIMATE CHANGE - UPDATE
Actions now announced in Iceland, Australia (<risingtide@planet-save.com>)
& brewing in Scotland, Reading, Bristol, USA,
Venezuela & France
Next update and discussion meeting; London, June
20th, location tbc
Website now up: www.dissent.org.uk/g8climateaction
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(29) LOW-IMPACT LIVING INITIATIVE (LILI) COURSES
LILI is running the following courses during July.
Build your own earth oven: 1-3 July 2005
Straw-bale buiding: 1-3 July 2005
How to make biodiesel: 22-24 July 2005
LILI, Redfield Community, Bucking ham Road, Winslow,
Bucks, MK18 3LZ
(01296) 714184 lili@lowimpact.org
www.lowimpact.org
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(30) Stroud Community Agriculture is a local social
enterprise initiative
involving a partnership between members of the local
community and farmers,
whereby the responsibilities and rewards of farming
are shared.
Due to phenomenal success over the last two years,
Stroud Community
Agriculture is looking to acquire plots of land of
20 acres or more local to
Stroud, in order to increase and diversify its range
of organic food production.
More details on SCA at
www.stroudcommunityagriculture.org
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(31) for your organic entertainment,
www.StoreWars.org
A short film promoting the organic revolution.
> Join the adventures of Cuke Skywalker, Obi-Wan
Cannoli, Chewbroccoli and the
> rest of the Organic Rebels fighting against Darth
Tader and the Dark Side of
> the Farm. And if you like the movie, pass it on!
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(32) Don't forget you can get Low Cost Calls and
Broadband from a Green, Ethical provider at the
Phone Co-op - copy, paste & follow this link:
http://www.thephone.coop/receive.htm?name=Agent_394name2=index.html
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(33)
Freecycle invites us to advertise on line and give
away our belongings we no longer need as part of a
Gift Economy. We don't add to landfill and others
get what they want for free. How great is that!!
There are schemes over the country, but the Norfolk
group website is at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NorfolkUKFreecycle
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(34)
Regenco & the Earth Mystery Initiation School
(Devon)
The Wilderness Quests for Vision & Self healing -
The Wilderness Quest for Vision or
Self-healing/Vision quest offers a powerful
opportunity to learn with Nature and meet ourselves
supported, yet undistracted by our normal
circumstance.
It supports us particularly in relation to changes
we are going through, guides and challenges us.
Facing the challenges it becomes a place where we
can experience our own strengths, our own resources
and our own truth.
Though threshold times vary all quests include
thorough preparation and time for integration.
July 6th-10th (preparation weeked June 24th-6th - 3
day threshold time)
August 22nd-25th & Sept 12th-15th (24 hour threshold
times) (Jeremy Thres + support)
Walkabout: Walkabout is a nomadic form we have been
developing based on fresh and time honoured tools
and insight as to how to support people to better
know themselves, their relatioonship to community
and world of which we are a part (not apart). It is
an attentive journey offering a balance of
community, self-discovery, practicality, depth and
play. Folks have to be relatively fit as we tend to
carry all that we need for the journey.
July 30th - Aug 4th Dartmoor Jeremy Thres & Charlie
Loram
Sept 18th -23rd (Jeremy Thres & Chris Salisbury of
Wildwise - Sea - source)
ReSourcing - an alternative to the above supporting
individuals and small groups to go deep, reconnect
to the greater field and feel more fully resourced
in their life and work.
We work with adults of all ages and are holding a
door open particularly to young adults who feel a
call to such experiences (16 & up). Annually we also
offer a month long experiential traing in this work
and other support for those with experience in this
and related fields.
contact Jeremy Thres 01647 432840
ojl1@onetel.com
Trebbe johnson a quest guide from the States is also
offering a weekend retreat entitled "the Divine
Lover - our Soul's quest for wholeness" June 10th -
12th in Kent
contact Stuart Woodin 020 8694 2828
also stop press....
- Regenco's summer camp/gathering
7th-10th August (poss' also camping to the 12th) at
Epona, relax, enjoy, beautiful land, beautiful place
North East Dartmoor contact Charlie Loram 01647
281217 or Jeremy 432840
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(35) One day courses in “Gaia Theory for
Beginners”
The Great Turning involves a shift in the way we
see ourselves and our world, moving away from a
fragmented view that sets us apart from each other
and our world, towards one where we see and
experience our connectedness. Gaia Theory is a view
from science
that has vast spiritual and ecological significance.
In the adult education section of Bristol
University, Chris Johnstone runs regular one day
introductions to Gaia Theory, focusing on the
science in the morning and the personal/ecological
significance in the afternoon.
Next courses Saturday Oct 15th, 9.30am-4.30pm.
Repeated Saturday 3rd December. For more information
and for other courses,
see Chris’s website at www.chrisjohnstone.info
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(36)
2005 Weekend Courses
on the
Welsh Borders nr Hay-on-Wye
Organised by
Gaia Cooperative
in association with Resurgence and Schumacher
College
Lots of interesting and inspiring workshops - check
out their website at
<http://www.gaiacooperative.org/>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The end of oil is closer than you think
Oil production could peak next year, reports John
Vidal.
Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye
John Vidal, The Guardian, Thursday April 21, 2005
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html
The one thing that international bankers don't want
to hear is that the second Great Depression may be
round the corner. But last week, a group of
ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired
English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to
tell them about the beginning of the end of the oil
age.
They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the
London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre because
he is an industry man through and through, has no
financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on
the front line of oil exploration on three
continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a
vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP,
Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen
different countries.
"Don't worry about oil running out; it won't for
very many years," the Oxford PhD told the bankers in
a message that he will repeat to businessmen,
academics and investment analysts at a conference in
Edinburgh next week. "The issue is the long downward
slope that opens on the other side of peak
production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and
their decline will change the world in radical and
unpredictable ways," he says.
Campbell reckons global peak production of
conventional oil - the kind associated with gushing
oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even next
year. His calculations are based on historical and
present production data, published reserves and
discoveries of companies and governments, estimates
of reserves lodged with the US Securities and
Exchange Commission, speeches by oil chiefs and a
deep knowledge of how the industry works.
"About 944bn barrels of oil has so far been
extracted, some 764bn remains extractable in known
fields, or reserves, and a further 142bn of reserves
are classed as 'yet-to-find', meaning what oil is
expected to be discovered. If this is so, then the
overall oil peak arrives next year," he says.
If he is correct, then global oil production can be
expected to decline steadily at about 2-3% a year,
the cost of everything from travel, heating,
agriculture, trade, and anything made of plastic
rises. And the scramble to control oil resources
intensifies. As one US analyst said this week: "Just
kiss your lifestyle goodbye."
But the Campbell analysis is way off the much more
optimistic official figures. The US Geological
Survey (USGS) states that reserves in 2000 (its
latest figures) of recoverable oil were about three
trillion barrels and that peak production will not
come for about 30 years. The International Energy
Agency (IEA) believes that oil will peak between
"2013 and 2037" and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and
Iran, four countries with much of the world's known
reserves, report little if any depletion of
reserves. Meanwhile, the oil companies - which do
not make public estimates of their own "peak oil" -
say there is no shortage of oil and gas for the long
term. "The world holds enough proved reserves for 40
years of supply and at least 60 years of gas supply
at current consumption rates," said BP this week.
Indeed, almost every year for 150 years, the oil
industry has produced more than it did the year
before, and predictions of oil running out or
peaking have always been proved wrong. Today, the
industry is producing about 83m barrels a day, with
big new fields in Azerbaijan, Angola, Algeria, the
deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere soon
expected on stream.
But the business of estimating oil reserves is
contentious and political. According to Campbell,
companies seldom report their true findings for
commercial reasons, and governments - which own 90%
of the reserves - often lie. Most official figures,
he says, are grossly unreliable: "Estimating
reserves is a scientific business. There is a range
of uncertainty but it is not impossible to get a
good idea of what a field contains. Reporting
[reserves], however, is a political act."
According to Campbell and other oil industry
sources, the two most widely used estimates of world
oil reserves, drawn up by the Oil and Gas Journal
and the BP Statistical Review, both rely on reserve
estimates provided to them by governments and
industry and do not question their accuracy.
Companies, says Campbell, "under-report their new
discoveries to comply with strict US stock exchange
rules, but then revise them upwards over time",
partly to boost their share prices with "good news"
results. "I do not think that I ever told the truth
about the size of a prospect. That was not the game
we were in," he says. "As we were competing for
funds with other subsidiaries around the world, we
had to exaggerate."
Most serious of all, he and other oil depletion
analysts and petroleum geologists, most of whom have
been in the industry for years, accuse the US of
using questionable statistical probability models to
calculate global reserves and Opec countries of
drastically revising upwards their reserves in the
1980s.
"The estimates for the Opec countries were
systematically exaggerated in the late 1980s to win
a greater slice of the allocation cake. Middle East
official reserves jumped 43% in just three years
despite no new major finds," he says.
The study of "peak oil" - the point at which half
the total oil known to have existed in a field or a
country has been consumed, beyond which extraction
goes into irreversible decline - used to be
back-of-the envelope guesswork. It was not taken
seriously by business or governments, mainly because
oil has always been cheap and plentiful.
In the wake of the Iraq war, the rapid economic rise
of China, global warming and recent record oil
prices, the debate has shifted from "if" there is a
global peak to "when".
The US government knows that conventional oil is
running out fast. According to a report on oil
shales and unconventional oil supplies prepared by
the US office of petroleum reserves last year,
"world oil reserves are being depleted three times
as fast as they are being discovered. Oil is being
produced from past discoveries, but the reserves
are not being fully replaced. Remaining oil reserves
of individual oil companies must continue to shrink.
The disparity between increasing production and
declining discoveries can only have one outcome: a
practical supply limit will be reached and future
supply to meet conventional oil demand will not be
available."
It continues: "Although there is no agreement about
the date that world oil production will peak,
forecasts presented by USGS geologist Les Magoon,
the Oil and Gas Journal, and others expect the peak
will occur between 2003 and 2020. What is notable
... is that none extend beyond the year 2020,
suggesting that the world may be facing shortfalls
much sooner than expected."
According to Bill Powers, editor of the Canadian
Energy Viewpoint investment journal, there is a
growing belief among geologists who study world oil
supply that production "is soon headed into an
irreversible decline ... The US government does not
want to admit the reality of the situation. Dr
Campbell's thesis, and those of others like him, are
becoming the mainstream."
In the absence of reliable official figures,
geologists and analysts are turning to the
grandfather of oil depletion analysis, M King
Hubbert, a Shell geologist who in 1956 showed
mathematically that exploitation of any oilfield
follows a predictable "bell curve" trend, which is
slow to take off, rises steeply, flattens and then
descends again steeply. The biggest and easiest
exploited oilfields were always found early in the
history of exploration, while smaller ones were
developed as production from the big fields
declined. He accurately predicted that US domestic
oil production would peak around 1970, 40 years
after the period of peak discovery around 1930.
Many oil analysts now take the "Hubbert peak" model
seriously, and the USGS, national and oil company
figures with a large dose of salt. Similar patterns
of peak discovery and production have been found
throughout all the world's main oilfields. The first
North Sea discovery was in 1969, discoveries peaked
in 1973 and the UK passed its production peak in
1999. The British portion of the basin is now in
serious decline and the Norwegian sector has
levelled off.
Other analysts are also questioning afresh the oil
companies' data. US Wall street energy group Herold
last month compared the stated reserves of the
world's leading oil companies with their quoted
discoveries, and production levels. Herold predicts
that the seven largest will all begin seeing
production declines within four years. Deutsche Bank
analysts report that global oil production will peak
in 2014.
According to Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum
Review, a monthly magazine published by the Energy
Institute in London, conventional oil reserves are
now declining about 4-6% a year worldwide. He says
18 large oil-producing countries, including Britain,
and 32 smaller ones, have declining production; and
he expects Denmark, Malaysia, Brunei, China, Mexico
and India all to reach their peak in the next few
years.
"We should be worried. Time is short and we are not
even at the point where we admit we have a problem,"
Skrebowski says. "Governments are always excessively
optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I
think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms."
On the other hand, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome, Chad
and Angola are are all expected to grow strongly.
What is agreed is that world oil demand is surging.
The International Energy Agency, which collates
national figures and predicts demand, says
developing countries could push demand up 47% to
121m barrels a day by 2030, and that oil companies
and oil-producing nations must spend about $100bn a
year to develop new supplies to keep pace.
According to the IEA, demand rose faster in 2004
than in any year since 1976. China's oil
consumption, which accounted for a third of extra
global demand last year, grew 17% and is expected to
double over 15 years to more than 10m barrels a day
- half the US's present demand. India's consumption
is expected to rise by nearly 30% in the next five
years. If world demand continues to grow at 2% a
year, then almost 160m barrels a day will need to be
extracted in 2035, twice as much as today.
That, say most geologists is almost inconceivable.
According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of
all known reserves are now in production, suggesting
that few major discoveries remain to be made. Shell
says its reserves fell last year because it only
found enough oil to replace 15-25 % of what the
company produced. BP told the US stock exchange that
it replaced only 89% of its production in 2004.
Moreover, oil supply is increasingly limited to a
few giant fields, with 10% of all production coming
from just four fields and 80% from fields discovered
before 1970. Even finding a field the size of Ghawar
in Saudi Arabia, by far the world's largest and said
to have another 125bn barrels, would only meet world
demand for about 10 years.
"All the major discoveries were in the 1960s, since
when they have been declining gradually over time,
give or take the occasional spike and trough," says
Campbell. "The whole world has now been seismically
searched and picked over. Geological knowledge has
improved enormously in the past 30 years and it is
almost inconceivable now that major fields remain to
be found."
He accepts there may be a big field or two left in
Russia, and more in Africa, but these would have
little bearing on world supplies. Unconventional
deposits like tar sands and shale may only slow the
production decline.
"The first half of the oil age now closes," says
Campbell. "It lasted 150 years and saw the rapid
expansion of industry, transport, trade, agriculture
and financial capital, allowing the population to
expand six-fold. The second half now dawns, and will
be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends
on it, including financial capital."
So did the Swiss bankers comprehend the seriousness
of the situation when he talked to them? "There is
no company on the stock exchange that doesn't make a
tacit assumption about the availability of energy,"
says Campbell. "It is almost impossible for bankers
to accept it. It is so out of their mindset."
Crude alternatives
"Unconventional" petroleum reserves, which are not
included in some totals of reserves, include:
Heavy oils
These can be pumped just like conventional petroleum
except that they are much thicker, more polluting,
and require more extensive refining. They are found
in more than 30 countries, but about 90% of
estimated reserves are in the Orinoco "heavy oil
belt" of Venezuela, which has an estimated 1.2
trillion barrels. About one third of the oil is
potentially recoverable using current technology.
Tar sands
These are found in sedimentary rocks and must be dug
out and crushed in giant opencast mines. But it
takes five to 10 times the energy, area and water to
mine, process and upgrade the tars that it does to
process conventional oil. The Athabasca deposits in
Alberta, Canada are the world's largest resource,
with estimated reserves of 1.8 trillion barrels, of
which about 280-300bn barrels may be recoverable.
Production now accounts for about 20% of Canada's
oil supply.
Oil shales
These are seen as the US government's energy
stopgap. They exist in large quantities in
ecologically sensitive parts of Colorado, Wyoming
and Utah at varying depths, but the industrial
process needed to extract the oil demands hot water,
making it much more expensive and less
energy-efficient than conventional oil. The mining
operation is extremely damaging to the environment.
Shell, Exxon, ChevronTexaco and other oil companies
are investing billions of dollars in this expensive
oil production method.
If you’d like a clearer picture of what this could
mean for us, read Thom Hartmann’s book
“The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight” (Hodder
and Stoughton, 2001)
Described by Neale Donald Walsch as “One of the most
important books you will ever read in your life”. I
agree!